The Inevitable Decline of Postal Services in a Paperless World

As someone deeply engaged in the evolution of paperless initiatives in Japan and the future of office supplies, I want to share insights into how digitalization is reshaping the postal and printing industries.

The Financial Struggles of Japan Post

Japan Post is facing severe financial difficulties, prompting the Japanese government to consider fiscal support measures. Lawmakers have proposed an annual subsidy of approximately 65 billion yen to maintain Japan’s extensive postal network of 24,000 offices. This funding would come from dividends on government-held Japan Post shares and dormant account funds. However, Japan Post has recorded consecutive years of deficits, with its postal business reporting a loss of 89.6 billion yen in 2023.

Despite these emergency measures, the long-term sustainability of such subsidies remains questionable. As mail volumes continue to decline and operational costs rise, Japan Post is likely to resort to further postage rate increases. This, in turn, will drive even more businesses and individuals toward digital alternatives, accelerating the decline of physical mail in a self-reinforcing cycle.

Declining Mail Volumes and the Postal Crisis

The number of mailed items in Japan has halved over the past 20 years since peaking in 2001. A survey of mail drop boxes nationwide revealed that 43,000 boxes (25.1% of the total) receive 30 or fewer letters per month—equating to less than one item per day. Furthermore, about 6,700 boxes (3.9%) handle as few as 0-1 items per month, highlighting the dramatic decline in mail usage.

A pilot study installing sensors in 14 remote mailboxes found that one of them did not receive a single letter over an entire month. This illustrates the increasing difficulty of maintaining the postal network as physical mail loses relevance.

This decline is driven by digitalization, the widespread use of email and social media, corporate paperless policies, and the dwindling tradition of New Year’s greeting cards. The role of postal services is changing rapidly, and the downward trend is expected to continue.

The Case of Denmark: A Warning for Japan

Japan’s postal crisis is not unique. Denmark recently announced the abolition of letter deliveries by the end of 2025 due to a more than 90% decrease in mail volume since 2000. PostNord, Denmark’s postal service, declared letter handling financially unsustainable and plans to remove over 1,500 mailboxes nationwide. With widespread adoption of digital public services, physical mail has become obsolete in Denmark, serving as a cautionary tale for Japan.

Similarly, Deutsche Post in Germany is grappling with declining mail revenues and recently announced an 8,000-employee downsizing to mitigate financial losses. As global postal networks struggle to adapt, Japan Post may follow a similar path, prioritizing parcel deliveries over traditional mail services.

The Challenges Facing the Recycled Toner Industry

The impact of digitalization extends beyond postal services. The Association of Japanese Cartridge Recyclers (AJCR) reports a continuous decline in domestic demand for recycled toner cartridges.

According to AJCR data, recycled toner shipments in Japan peaked at 5.79 million units in 2012. However, a downward trend has persisted, with shipments falling to 4.29 million in 2020 and further declining to 3.83 million in 2023. The post-2020 decrease has been particularly sharp, with a year-on-year drop of 87.7% at one point, reflecting the drastic reduction in office printing needs.

If this trend continues, the recycled toner industry will face an even steeper decline in demand. In recent years, an increasing number of Japanese recycled toner companies have found it difficult to continue operations. Smaller firms, in particular, are highly vulnerable to bankruptcy. One such company, which originally operated a factory in Saitama but relocated to Tochigi last year due to financial difficulties, issued an industry-wide legal notice on March 11, announcing its intention to undergo debt restructuring (voluntary settlement, civil rehabilitation, or bankruptcy). There is growing speculation that more small-scale recycled toner companies in Japan will continue to go out of business in the near future.

The convergence of paperless initiatives, rising postage costs, and changing consumer behavior presents an existential challenge to both the postal and office printing industries. Without groundbreaking innovations, Japan may soon follow Denmark’s lead, marking the end of traditional letter services and accelerating the obsolescence of print-based business operations.

Editor’s Note: While it’s inevitable that Japan’s postal services and the recycled toner industry will face a decline due to digitalization, that doesn’t mean these industries are powerless. By embracing innovation, these industries can still turn digitalization from a threat into a catalyst for purpose-driven transformation. The question is how creatively they will respond.

About the Author

Koichi Yoshizuka is the founder and CEO of QRIE Ltd., established in 2005. QRIE specializes in importing and wholesaling compatible inks and toners for printers. The company has successfully expanded into online sales through its e-commerce site and major platforms like Rakuten, Amazon, and Yahoo! Shopping, serving a diverse clientele ranging from corporate clients to individual consumers. Renowned for quality and affordability, QRIE has won Rakuten’s Shop of the Year award in the Electronics category three times.

In addition, QRIE is actively developing new digital businesses and products driven by employee innovation. Today, QRIE boasts annual sales revenue of approximately USD 14 million and employs 45 dedicated staff members. Under Koichi Yoshizuka’s leadership, QRIE continues to thrive and innovate in the competitive printer supplies market.

Koichi Yoshizuka was also a featured speaker at the RemaxWorld Summit 2024 , held in October during the RemaxWorld Expo in Zhuhai, China. In his address, he highlighted the unique characteristics of the Japanese printing and copying market.

For communication, you can contact Koichi Yoshizuka on LinkedIn.

Other posts from Koichi:

• Farewell to a Legend: David Gibbons and His Enduring Legacy
• Japan’s Journey to Paperless: Digitization and the Decline of Office Printing
• The Inevitable Decline of Postal Services in a Paperless World

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