PC Outlook Remains Cautious

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -2.7% in 2014, an improvement from the previous forecast of -3.7%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

Although third quarter results were a few points ahead of forecast with shipments down only -0.5% from the prior year, most regions and market participants saw this as a short-term gain rather than as a sign of stronger growth in the medium- or long-term.

Mature regions continue to grow while a rebound in emerging regions has taken longer (due to a later impact from tablets as well as slower economics and commercial replacements). Western Europe and Japan performed better than expected in the third quarter, but the gains were driven by a rebound from last year and short-term factors such as building fourth quarter inventory earlier in the year and continuing Windows XP replacement activity. Despite the relative short-term strength, mature regions are expected to see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through the end of the forecast.

The consumer market came in slightly ahead of projections in the third quarter, but shipments are still expected to decline -5% in 2014. Pressure from tablets seems to be waning as penetration rises and tablets move to smaller sizes and lower price points. However, competition for disposable income from smartphones and phablets is rising. In addition, the market was boosted in the third quarter by factors such as a rise in low-cost systems in many markets and a rebound in Western Europe, which helped restore volume to earlier levels but not without cost in value of shipments.

(Source: IDC)

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